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Forex Secret – Specificities in the Intra-Day Work at Forex

There are trends of four types:

· the intra-session trend;

· the weekly trend;

· the trend of duration of several weeks;

· the trend of duration of several months.

A zigzag-like movement of any currency pair at Forex consists of various combinations of such trends. A smaller trend makes an integral component of a bigger trend (either the trend wave, or, on the contrary, the retracement (correction) of a longer trend towards the opposite direction).

What any trader wants to know about Forex.

An individual is interested in knowing the correlation at least between the first (and shortest) trends at the beginning of the trade but not at the end of it. That is, one wants to learn the clear and simple rules, according which it would be possible to regularly open deals quietly and work within the intra-session trend with confidence. In addition, one is interested in understanding of the correlation at least between the intra-session and weekly trends.

Our aim is to gain but not to lose. One must keep cool. It is of no use to spend your nerves and health. Even if the currency has moved in “the wrong direction” by 15 points, it will return in a moment. Anyway, the only direction where the currency can go is that towards which you have opened the deal. The problem is just of being too late for entering the deal. As regards the given situation, the recommendations are the following:

a). If there are no signs of reversal in the currency pair movement, you must open the deal once more after the recoil (rollback).

b). If there are signs of the reversal (the preceding movement was the false breakout), at first you should open one deal towards the opposite direction. You get into the lock, where the quantity of damages, being fixed (stipulated), does not increase (in Masterforex Training Academy one can get a special course of training to the technique of making the lock). Further, you add deals towards the direction of the currency pair movement in the given session. First of all, you compensate your damages and then you gain profit. Under the condition of false breakouts of the levels of resistance/support, the margin of the currency pair movement is always larger than in the case of the level true breakout. That is, the trader can gain higher profits.

What a trader who follows (sticks to) these rules must see:

a). faultless levels of resistance and support with respect to each of ally currency pairs. (very often they are not those mentioned in sites by “respectable” analysts (but not traders));

b). clear criteria of the true and false breakout of these levels and the intra-session trend beginning;

c). the synchronous (or non synchronous) character of the ally currency pair group movement;

d). the time, velocity and type (manner) of the currency pair movement;

e). the next level (the intermediate goal), to which the currency pair is tending;

f). the reserve (margin) of the currency pair movement for the trading session;

g). the point of the intra-session trend end (surely, one must know the clear criteria of the movement finish; when such signs appear, one must fix (register) one’s profits);

h). the point that confirms the beginning of the intra-session trend retracement; at this point one can also work with the correction against the trend at the super- short distances – in particular, you can make the lock narrower if you have got into this lock at the trading session beginning.

According to B. Williams, it is the fifth highest degree of the trader’s qualification. Reaching this stage, the trader is not nervous but he feels satisfaction at his work

The reasons why the majority of traders never reach this fifth highest degree of trading

The reason consists in the classical Forex dogmas, according to which the technical analysis starts at least from daily charts.

In his “The Technical Analysis as a New Science”, T. DeMark writes the following.

1. The daily information is the most accessible; for dozens of years analysts work mainly with daily charts.

2. Making use of daily charts, a trader must not continuously keep an eye on the market intra-day behavior. The trader runs less risks of being trapped because of price corrections. Not at all rare in the intra-day database, such corrections make the real pest of it.

3. There is the probability of making a deal at a price, closest to the value stipulated in the order. This probability increases if the trader uses the market signals, based on the intra-day information.

Here I would like to mention J. Swagger’s rule #44 from his book “The Technical Analysis. Complete Course”. The author claims that intra-day solutions are almost always wrong. He does not recommend to be engaged in the intra-day trade.

Below I submit other rules developed by this “classicist of the technical analysis”.

7. Looking at the chart, you should follow your instinctive impression – especially if you do not mind to what kind of the market this chart relates.

Comment. What about the discipline and following the strict rules?

8. The fact that you have missed a substantial part of the new trend must not keep you away from trading within this trend – as long as you can detect the reasonable point of the damage arrest.

Comments. How must one understand this statement? Seemingly, the author admits uselessness (non operability) of his TRADING SYSTEM.

a) How to detect the reversal point not only within the trading day but in longer trends as well?

b) What does the notion “the reasonable point of the damage arrest” implies?

c) What are the criteria of the trend change?

d) About what kind of trend does one talk – the long-term, intermediate-term or the short-term ones? (We have dwelt on the difference between such trends in the previous chapter).

e) Even a trader-beginner can give a dozen of examples of a situation like this. The stop-loss (“the reasonable point of the damage arrest”) was located at a peak of the short-term trend. Then the currency again rushed along the intermediate-term trend.

14. The newly-formed price models (or the market behavior) can tend towards the direction opposite to your position. In this case, you must immediately go out of any deal – even if stop points are not reached yet. You should ask yourself: “If I need a position at this market, what its direction must be?” If the answer does not coincide with the direction of the real position that you hold, you must close it. Actually, if values of the contrary indices are rather substantial, you reverse the position.

Comments. How to combine (reconcile) this thesis with the words “do not be engaged in the intra-day trading”?

21. Let us suppose that you cannot watch the market during a time interval (maybe you are traveling). Under these conditions, there are two outlets. First, you can liquidate all positions. Otherwise, you must make sure that active stop-orders are placed in all open positions.

No comments. If one can earn money not watching the market, what profits can gain those individuals who sit in front of their monitors during the trading?

31. Do not fix a small quick profit gained at the deals the direction of which coincides with that of the principal trends. In particular, if you are fully confident in the deal, you should not fix the profit in the first day.

Comment. How to detect the principal trend? Which trend is principal (even in the framework of the old classification (the long-term, intermediate-term and short-term trends))? And what is about the stop-loss? If the deal is open towards the “principal” trend direction, whereas the retracement (correction) starts developing in the opposite direction.

45. It is obligatory to check markets before the closing on Friday. Often the situation becomes clearer at the end of the week. The best price of entering the deal and going out of it is obtainable on Friday. At the stock exchange opening on the next Monday the price is worse. In particular, this rule is important when you hold a substantial position.

Comment. In fact, J. Swagger admits the existence of a weekly trend.

We now attract the reader’s attention to B. Babcock’s viewpoint ( see “How to trade trends”). This author states that for the successful trade your time scale for measuring the trend must be not shorter than 4 weeks. Therefore, you must enter the deal towards the price movement direction, which remains unaltered during 4 weeks and longer. There is a good example of the strategy based on trends. One must buy when the price of “close” is higher than 25 days before. One must sell when the price of “close” is lower than 25 days before. When you work in such a long trend, you really follow the market, not trying to predict it.

Comments. Thus, it is recommended to wait during 25 days, and then put the order on the 26th day. However, towards what direction it must be done? You look at the daily charts. For the convenience of calculating various currency pairs, one candle corresponds to one day. You can estimate the logic of the well-known author’s reasoning by yourself.

Chart 12.1. USD/JPY pair movement during 4 hours. (For view picture see notes in end of article)

The descending trend came to an end exactly on the 26th day. After this the trend reversed and turned to the ascending one.

There is the analogous example. On January 3, 2006, the daily and weekly trends coincided at the American session. GBP passed more than 200 points during the session; EURO passed more than 160 points.

There arise the following questions.

3. Under the condition of the coincidence of the daily trend with the weekly one and the recoil from MF zone, is the movement regular? Naturally, it is! (The methods of determining the levels of the weekly trend beginning are explained in the educational course at Masterforex Trading Academy).

4. According to “classics” of Forex, a trader must do the following:

a). DeMark recommends to wait at least till the end of the day;

b). B. Babcock advises to start to count out 26 trading days in the current month;

c). J. Swagger recommends “not to be engaged in the intra-day trade”. If the total trend is descending, one must stake on “sell” with GBP and EURO against USD and install the stop-loss at a “reasonable point of the damage arrest”.

3. Now let us see what advices the analysts of “respectable” sites gave to traders that very day.

Forex Brokers Alpari made a review of the Asian session on January 3, 2006. Specialists of this center stated that the principal event of the day was to be the edition of the protocol of FOMC meeting dedicated to rates on December 13. Participants of the market were going carefully to study FOMC minute charts. The reason was the following. For the first time after a long period from the text of the final (concluding) instruction the Committee withdrew an important phrase about the stimulating character of the currency policy. In the past year the last trading day was finished with the positive sentiments towards USD. The latter still has chances to win back losses at the Asian session on Tuesday (December 13, 2005).

Comments. The analysts from Alpari, are they Guru? How can one know where and by how many points the currency will go in the forthcoming session? And what is more, the estimation is made issuing from the data that are to be expected on the basis of the fundamental analysis.

You can imagine how such analysts can confuse traders with the help of the fundamental analysis by suggesting who and where will “regain” the money in the next trading session.

Here about the same day it is written the following. Dealers note that, generally speaking, currency rates still have not left the ranges established recently. The pressure on USD rate is explicable by the following fact. Under the condition of low activity some investors start to close long positions in USD rate.

Expectation of an increase in the American stock indices gives a certain support to USD rate. The investors’ attention is concentrated on the issue of protocol of the last meeting of Open Market Committee of USA Federal redundant system (FRS).

Comments. How should a trader open the position? Should it be done at the beginning of the session trend? Or, maybe, it is better to do this after the issue of “FOMC meeting protocol”. That is, the position is to be opened after the careful study of this protocol by participants of the market.

As a trader to a trader, please, explain to me the following. Are such “analytical” reviews, edited on the eve of the trading, useful or harmful? If such reviews are detrimental to a trader, what for do Forex Brokers prepare them?

I’ll give no further comments upon such nonsense and dogmas written by “classics” of Forex and their followers – “analysts” from various Forex Brokers.

Better let us dwell on trading systems developed by up-to-date working traders at Forex. Their descriptions are available in Internet.

As a trader, I’m convinced that Trading System, developed by a real trader, can be much more useful to a trader-beginner in his learning how to really gain profit. Any Trading System must be profoundly comprehended by a student. Its application must be brought to perfection. The trader must work according to this system almost automatically. Under these conditions, the work with such Trading System will be much more useful than reading of dozens and hundreds of books written by the “classics” of Forex (not-traders). A thoughtless observance of advices given by such “respectable” analysts can be disastrous. Such analysts, writing nonsense one after another, serve for interests of various Forex Brokers but not for those of traders.

I’ll give no further comments upon such nonsense and dogmas written by “classics” of Forex and their followers – “analysts” from various Forex Brokers.

As a trader, I’m convinced that TRADING SYSTEM, developed by a real trader, can be much more useful to a trader-beginner in his learning how to really gain profit. Any TRADING SYSTEM must be profoundly comprehended by a student. Its application must be brought to perfection. The trader must work according to this system almost automatically. Under these conditions, the work with such TRADING SYSTEM will be much more useful than reading of dozens and hundreds of books written by the “classics” of Forex (not-traders). A thoughtless observance of advices given by such “respectable” analysts can be disastrous. Such analysts, writing nonsense one after another, serve for interests of various Forex Brokers but not for those of traders.

Note:

Full text of this article and pictures of examples Article

If you wish to be trained on Trading System Masterforex-V – one of new and most effective techniques of trade on Forex in the world visit Masterforex-V Academy

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