The April series started with a rollover of 67.66 percent (last month 73.5 percent), lower than the 3-month average of 69 percent, and market-wide rollover is at 77 percent (last month 80 percent) via 3 month average of 84 percent.
Overall derivative data indicates long rollover and most of the positions has been carried with the average of 9,160 futures. Derivatives data indicate that bullish scenario may remain to continue in upcoming sessions as well.
“The Nifty has multiple strong supports placed at lower levels, which lies at 9,150, 9,100, 9,050 and followed by, 9,000 and 8,950 spot levels. Once again short sellers are on back foot; thus we can see a bounce in a market on every dip,” Shitij Gandhi, Sr. Research Analyst at SMC Global Securities Ltd told moneycontrol.
The 9,500-strike call has the highest open interest of 38 lakh shares followed by the 9400-strike call which has OI of over 31 lakh shares. On put side, 9000-strike put has the highest open interest of over 49 lakh shares in open interest.
“From options data, we have been seeing a shifting of range to the upper band. As per option concentration data Nifty should face resistance around 9,400-9,500 levels,” said Gandhi.
However, the market undertone is likely to remain bullish with the support of consistent FII buying and short covering. “On the technical front 9,150-9,200 spot levels is strong support zone for the Nifty and current trend is likely to continue towards 9,400-9,500,” he said.
We have collated a list of seven trading strategies based on technical parameters for the short term:
Analyst: Shitij Gandhi, Sr. Research Analyst at SMC Global Securities Ltd
Equitas: BUY| Target Rs 195| Stop Loss Rs 158| Upside 13 percent
Equitas Holdings is a diversified financial service provider focused on individuals and micro and small enterprises (MSEs) that are underserved by formal financing channels.
On the technical front, the stock has perceived a decent rally in early 2017, from 140 levels to 185 levels. However, since then the stock has taken a breather as a pullback in prices has taken the stock towards 156 levels which is also a 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement level of the previous rally.
Now, once again bulls are looking interested in the stock as large volumes are apparently seeing at lower levels with the rise in price.
The positive divergence in RSI & stochastic on daily charts also suggesting for the uptrend to remain intact and signals constructive move going forward. In recent sessions, most of the delivery has taken place around 165 levels, which suggests that fresh delivery base buying have been done in the scrip.
On derivative front, the stock has highest OI concentration in 160 puts which will act as major support. Traders can accumulate the stock in a range of Rs 170-172 for the target of Rs 195 with a stop loss below Rs 158.
HBL Power Systems: BUY| Target Rs 52| Stop Loss Rs 41| Upside 15 percent
The company manufactures a wide range of specialized batteries for a spectrum of applications using varied technologies. From technical charts, it can be observed that stock has been trading in rising channel and making higher highs and higher lows on daily chart since mid-November 2016.
In recent past 45 levels has been the key resistance area for the stock and on downside 40 acted as a major support level. On February 17, the stock has given sharp rise from 40 to 44 levels in a single trading session and since then went into consolidation between 42-44.50 levels.
From the current picture, the bullish flag pattern can be seen on daily charts, which indicates that breakout in prices will result in further rally in the prices. Moreover on the broader picture, one can see the ascending triangle formation which is again bullish in nature.
The secondary indicators like moving averages and positive divergence in RSI are also signaling in the strengthening of prices. Traders can accumulate the stock in a range of Rs 44-45 with a stop loss below Rs 41 for the target of Rs 52.
Kajaria Ceramics: BUY| Target Rs 680| Stop Loss Rs 560| Upside 13 percent
Kajaria Ceramics is a tile company engaged in the manufacturing and trading of ceramics, polished and glazed vitrified tiles. The stock has been trading in a long-term uptrend since 2009. In Oct’16 stock marked a peak near Rs 740 levels and then witness serious profit booking which brings it to near Rs 450 levels.
However, sharp recovery has been seen in late 2016, which once again taken the stock above its multiple moving averages. This recent rally from lower levels has taken pause at 50 percent Fibonacci retracement of previous fall which lays around Rs 590 levels. Ever since recovery once again consolidation in prices has been seen from Jan’17 till Mar’17.
However, in previous two sessions bulls have again shown some interest as large volumes with the rise in prices given breakout in the stock above its recent resistance level of Rs 599.
This consolidation breakout indicates that prices may once again travel towards north to test its recent highs. Traders can accumulate the stock in a range of Rs 595-600 for the target of Rs 680 with a stop loss below Rs 560.
Analyst: Abnish Kumar Sudhanshu, Director & Research Head, Amrapali Aadya Trading & Investments
IRB Infrastructure: BUY| Target Rs 255| Stop Loss Rs 234| Upside 6 percent
The stock is in a trading range between Rs 230 and Rs 255. It has support around its 50-DMA placed at Rs 232. The daily candlestick chart shows that it has formed a bullish candle followed by a near doji which is early indication bulls are intervening.
The momentum indicator such as RSI slipped below 60 shows that there is more headroom to go and formation of signal crossover at MACD front.
TeamLease: BUY| Target Rs 1060| Stop Loss Rs 975| Upside 6 percent
Forming a strong bull candle at the closing of Monday, the stock has come out of its long gestation period. Daily charts show that it has faced resistance at its 200-DMA in immediate past which has broken on Monday’s closing.
With this price -volume breakout, the stock is likely to be in the trending zone. The downside is seemed to be protected at its 200-DMA placed at Rs 970.
Tata Elxsi: BUY| Target Rs 1,530| Stop Loss Rs 1,460| Upside 3 percent
Forming a bullish engulfing daily chart on Monday, the stock has closed higher. On Monday, it managed to close above the short and long moving averages. A close above the average is near-term positive for the stock.
Intraday chart shows that it has made a triple bottom Rs 1,440 which is a strong support zone below the current level of Rs 1,460. Further RSI of 50 is also considered to be neutral.
Tata Motors: BUY| Target Rs 500| Stop Loss Rs 460| Upside 6 percent
Daily candlestick chart of the stock shows the formation of a bullish candle followed by a gravestone Doji. Gravestone Doji is considered a bearish formation which is now neutralized with the formation of a bullish candle.
On the intraday chart, the stock has formed higher lows in the last couple of days as traders are quick to buy on dips. The momentum indicator RSI also stands at a neutral level.
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